The computer models are still on fire picking NFL games — here are their picks for Week 14


tom bradyJim Rogash/Getty

  • After a slow start to the season, Cortana and Elo are
    on fire in recent weeks.
  • The two models we’re tracking have correctly picked 65%
    of the games this season.
  • Cortana has nailed 76% of the games in the last seven
    weeks and Elo has correctly picked 73% over the last three
    weeks.

The NFL season is now in Week 14, and the two computer
models we are tracking are still on fire.

We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games:
Cortana,
Microsoft’s digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used
by Nate Silver’s
FiveThirtyEight
.

In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not
against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team’s
winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of
certain lines.

Both models have been on fire in recent weeks. Elo went 12-4
in Week 12 and is now 32-12 (73%) over the last three weeks and
123-69 (64%) overall. Cortana still has the overall lead, going
11-5 in Week 13. Cortana is 128-64 (67%) overall and 77-24 (76%)
over the last seven weeks.

Here are the picks for Week 14, with each model’s percent chance
of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models
disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are
just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of
Thursday morning.

Thursday

  • New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) —
    FALCONS (Elo 56%), SAINTS (Cortana 61%)

Sunday

  • Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (No line) — BILLS
    (Elo 72%, Cortana 55%)
  • Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) — BENGALS
    (Elo 71%, Cortana 67%)
  • Green Bay Packers (-3) at Cleveland Browns — PACKERS
    (Elo 77%, Cortana 63%)
  • Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4) — CHIEFS (Elo
    67%, Cortana 55%)
  • Dallas Cowboys (-6) at New York Giants — COWBOYS (Elo
    61%, Cortana 72%)
  • Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No line) —
    No pick (Elo 50%/50%), LIONS (Cortana 60%)
  • Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers — VIKINGS
    (Elo 53%, Cortana 60%)
  • San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3) — TEXANS (Elo
    76%, Cortana 53%)
  • Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) —
    SEAHAWKS (Elo 53%), JAGUARS (Cortana 55%)
  • New York Jets (-1) at Denver Broncos — No pick
    (Elo 50%/50%), JETS (Cortana 57%)
  • Tennessee Titans (-3) at Arizona Cardinals — TITANS (Elo
    53%, Cortana 61%)
  • Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Chargers (-6) —
    CHARGERS (Elo 69%, Cortana 66%)
  • Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) — RAMS
    (Elo 52%, Cortana 51%)
  • Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) — STEELERS
    (Elo 71%, Cortana 66%)

Monday

  • New England Patriots (-11.5) at Miami Dolphins —
    PATRIOTS (Elo 81%, Cortana 80%)

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